According to the National Hurricane Center, the region of uncontrolled activity in the southeastern Caribbean is likely to be the next tropical storm, which will be called Hermin in the next few days.
CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said, “The fact that nearly every computer model out there has evolved this into a westward-moving hurricane is very concerning.
Development is therefore likely, but where it will go is still up for debate.
Hurricane Center spokesperson Maria Torres told CNN Wednesday: “But yes, it’s something we’ve been keeping an eye on, and we’re monitoring it closely over the weekend and early next week.”
The Hurricane Center said Wednesday morning that over the next few days, the riots are expected to move west-northwest through the southern Windward Islands, at the eastern end of the Caribbean Sea, and then toward the central Caribbean Sea.
By late next week, both models show the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico.
On Wednesday morning, American models indicated the storm as a large, possibly major, hurricane. It indicates landfall in the Florida Panhandle by September 30th. In European models, it hit southern Florida a day earlier, but at a much smaller magnitude, roughly the same as a severe storm.
By Thursday morning, the model’s execution had shifted. The European model is similar to the American one on Wednesday, with more intensity and more landfall on Florida’s west coast. It still predicts a faster storm, meaning it will make landfall on September 29th.
American models updated from Thursday morning show a much later storm. It will rotate in the Gulf of Mexico for several days, grow in size, and make landfall in Louisiana on Sunday.
The hurricane season, which was predicted to be above average, got off to a slow start. He has only made one landfall in U.S. territory, and no hurricane has ever made landfall or threatened the neighboring United States.
A week past the peak of hurricane season, the tropics seem to have woken up and forecasters worry people have let their guard down.
“After a slow start, the Atlantic hurricane season is gaining momentum quickly,” said Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University.
“People tend to let their guard down and think, oh yeah, we’re out of the woods,” Torres said. “But really, the season is on. It’s still September. We’re still in October, and anything forming in the Atlantic or Caribbean should continue to be monitored very closely.”
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30th.
Four times a day, the American forecast model and the European model spit out updated forecasts. And after each run, meteorologists tweet what they expect.
Either way, if you live in the Caribbean, Florida, and other states along the Gulf Coast, be careful and heed what the National Hurricane Center says when a hurricane gets strong enough to get a name. Please. Tracks issued at that time will increasingly give a good indication of what is most likely to happen.